
IPCC AR5 WGI Chapter 14 - A Review
Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change
Policy and Societal Relevance
This section highlights the results from Chapter 14 that have particular relevance to policymakers due to their societal implications. The three primary topics of relevance include monsoons, tropical cyclones, and the impacts of future regional climate change.
Monsoons are major annual climate phenomena in certain parts of the world, especially southern and eastern Asia. These events provide substantial amounts of water to these regions, which is both necessary for farming but also potentially destructive in terms of flooding. The key result from the IPCC AR5 report in this regard is that future increase in precipitation extremes related to the monsoon is very likely in South America, Africa, East Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Africa. This means that there will be more extreme/prolonged wet and dry spells associated with the monsoon, simultaneously leading to more intense periods of flooding and drought. This trend has already been observed for the Indian monsoon since the 1980s (Singh et al., 2014). This monsoonal event seasonally provides essential moisture to an agricultural region that supports nearly 20% of the world’s population. Prolonged dry spells in the region can lead to losses of an entire year’s crop yield, which can affect global food security. The increased flooding, while not as damaging to the food supply, can have significant impacts on human structures and livelihood. As recently as September 2014, monsoon floods killed over 300 people in India and Pakistan, leaving entire villages submerged and thousands of people homeless.

Monsoon flooding in India in 2011 (Associated Press).

Tropical cyclones also provide important water resources to certain areas of the world, but are more known for their destructive effects, such as intense wind, heavy rainfall, and storm surge. While climate models project that the global frequency of tropical cyclones will not increase in the future, it is considered likely that global mean maximum wind speed and precipitation rates of tropical cyclones will increase. Furthermore, the frequency of the most intense tropical cyclones is projected to increase substantially, more likely than not to be a >10% increase in some regions. More intense tropical cyclones will lead to more destruction and loss of life depending on the favored storm tracks in the future. While is currently not possible to directly ascribe singular events to the effects of climate change, several of the most intense tropical cyclones on record have occurred in recent years, such as Super Typhoon Haiyan in 2013, which reached wind speeds of 195 mph and killed over 6,000 people. If current climate projections are correct, these types of storms will become more frequent in the future, with significant implications for people living in cyclone-prone areas.
Devestation in the Philippines following Super Typhoon Haiyan (Erik de Castro/Reuters).
Future regional climate change was the final topic of this chapter and has a variety of implications for policymakers depending on the region of interest. Warming is expected to occur across the board in the 21st century, but in certain areas (e.g., the Arctic, northern and eastern Asia) this warming is expected to exceed that of the global mean. In North America, one of the most relevant points from the latest CMIP5 projections is lower confidence that the southwestern U.S. will experience a precipitation decrease, which has implications for water management issues in that region. Elsewhere, heat wave intensity, duration, and frequency are very likely going to increase, especially in Europe where there already have been several bad heat waves in recent years. Increases in precipitation extremes are another common theme across multiple regions, with the potential for more extreme flooding and drought events. A particular case of interest is Amazonia, where regional warming is expected to be the highest and coincident with a significant decrease in rainfall during the dry season. These changes have important implications for the Amazon rainforest, which is home to the largest collection of plant and animal species in the world but is already under threat from human activities such as logging. Two of the worst droughts on record in the Amazon have occurred in the past 10 years (2005 and 2010). Several studies have predicted that the rainforest is near a ‘tipping point’ beyond which the rainforest would transition to more of a savanna-type landscape, which would have enormous implications for global climate given the large carbon dioxide uptake from rainforest trees. In a typical year, the Amazon absorbs 1.5 gigatons of carbon dioxide; in the drought year of 2010, the Amazon emitted a net of 5 gigatons of carbon dioxide (Lewis et al., 2011) – nearly equivalent to the total emissions of greenhouse gases through fossil fuel burning in the United States in a whole year.

Dried up rivers associated with the 2005 drought in the Amazon region
(Cool Earth blog).